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Estimating the Risk

Herding Cats

Risk is everywhere on projects. This risk comes from two types of uncertainty. The idea of risk and its management and handling is a critical success factor for all software development. Peter Drucker (1975) Management (From The Principles of Software Engineering , Chapter 6, Tom Glib, 1988). .

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Why Johnny Can't Estimate? (Update)

Herding Cats

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. There is a discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. Mine is in hard science and systems engineering. In all cases, we start our work with.

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Basis of Estimating Software Development

Herding Cats

The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991. Don't hear one?

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Estimating Accuracy Mathematics

Herding Cats

In the estimating business, like many things in project management, there is confusion about principles, practices, and processes. A good estimation approach should provide estimates that are within 25% of the actual results, 75% of the time. Software Engineering Metrics and Models. Dunsmore and V.Y.

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7 Uncomfortable Truths for Project Managers

ProjectManager.com

Famously, software engineer and author Tim Lister said that: “Risk management is how adults manage projects.” Plan our work to accommodate risks and contingencies. But in the even less-certain new world of large-scale software development, that was looking increasingly difficult. Employ the assets you deliver.

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The Ontological Fallacy of No Estimates

Herding Cats

We can make decisions in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of that decision on our probability of success. Any criticism of the NO Estimates statement is met with being blocked from the discussion. Any criticism of the NO Estimates statement is met with being blocked from the discussion.

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Why Johnny Can't Estimate?

Herding Cats

Risk Management is How Adults Manage Projects - Tim Lister. Since all risk comes from uncertainty - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory), estimating is a foundation of all we do. In our domain of engineered systems there is a broad range of problems, complex issues, approaches to solving problems.