Herding Cats

APRIL 29, 2017

What is an estimate? An estimate as a noun is an approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something. An estimate as a verb is to roughly calculate or judge the value, number, quantity, or extent of. But those estimates, nouns, and verbs themselves's have other attributes.

Estimate 46

Estimate Risk Management Risk SCRUM 46

Herding Cats

AUGUST 27, 2017

There's a recent post titled Four Fallacious Reasons to Estimate. It lists the usual suspects for why those spending the money think they don't have to estimate how much they plan to spend when they'll be done producing the value they've been assigned to produce for that expenditure. Let's look at each one in more detail.

Estimate 46

Estimate Software Review Underperforming Technical Team Technical Review 46

Herding Cats

APRIL 16, 2019

Technical Performance Measures (#TPM). Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance Management (#CSTPM). Governance (#Governance). Managing Government Grant Projects at Arizona Public Service - APS management process for Department of Energy grant for algae CO2 capture project. Project Performance Management.

Technical Review 42

Technical Review Performance Measurement 2003 Government 42

Herding Cats

OCTOBER 11, 2016

I work in the Software Intensive System of Systems domains in Aerospace, Defense, Enterprise IT (both commercial and government) applying Agile, Earned Value Management, Productive Statistical Estimating (both parametric and Monte Carlo), Risk Management, and Root Cause Analysis with a variety of capabilities. Department of Energy.

Performance Measurement 28

Performance Measurement Aerospace 2006 Estimate 28

Herding Cats

DECEMBER 8, 2017

I work in a domain where the CoU is baked into the Integrated Program Performance Management (IPPM) processes flowed down from the buyer, in this case, the Federal Government. The CoU paradigm defines the needed reduction in uncertainty is some performance metric. This can be the confidence in the estimate for any variable.

Performance Measurement 35

Performance Measurement 2017 Technical Review 2008 35

Herding Cats

OCTOBER 1, 2016

For software, this can be value produced (assuming we have a unit of measure for that value in the for of effectiveness, performance, key performance parameters, or technical performance measures ). It can be the cost, schedule, and technical performance measures of the software project. https://goo.gl/DP6Jw

Closing 28

Closing Estimate Controlling Process 28

Herding Cats

NOVEMBER 19, 2018

The only answer to that is a measure of Physical Percent Complete (P%C). P%C starts with defining the Measures of Performance and Technical Performance Measures for each deliverable as a function of time. These measures are supported by Quantifiable Backup Data. What is your actual condition? .

2010 39

2010 Government Governance Performance Measurement 39

Herding Cats

APRIL 30, 2019

A recent lawsuit by Hertz Rental Car against Accenture has turned into a rallying cry by Agilest and No Estimates advocates. Of course, No Root Cause analysis has been performed by these advocates, but it makes good click bait for their followers. We play this role in ERP acquisitions for commercial and government clients .

Software Review 41

Software Review Technical Review 2018 Engineering 41

Herding Cats

DECEMBER 4, 2017

Measures of Performance - are performance measures that characterize physical or functional attributes relating to the system operation, measured or estimated under specific conditions. Measures of Performance. The Technical Performance Measures. The decision. Related articles.

2005 37

2005 Performance Measurement Closing Controlling 37

Herding Cats

AUGUST 12, 2017

Measures of Performance (MOP) – characterize physical or functional attributes relating to the system operation, measured or estimated under specific conditions. These measures are attributes that assure the system has the capability and capacity to perform.

Performance Measurement 39

Performance Measurement Estimate Risk Defining 39

Herding Cats

DECEMBER 5, 2017

We're working on a White Paper for the Joint Space Cost Council which is an organization composed of government (NRO, NASA, USAF, and others) and industry representatives with an interest in space. And to make those risk-informed decisions in the presence of reducible and irreducible uncertainty we need to ESTIMATE. Cost Impacts.

Aerospace 37

Aerospace Estimate Government Governance 37

Herding Cats

FEBRUARY 9, 2018

I've seen estimates abused by bad managers, so let's NOT estimate and that will fix the behavior of Bad Managers." While the human behaviors are real and observable, conjecturing that decisions can be made in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the outcome of those decisions, there is no principle to support that conjecture.

Underperforming Technical Team 44

Underperforming Technical Team Estimate 2003 Software Review 44

Herding Cats

JANUARY 23, 2018

Determination of physical percent complete is rooted in performance measurement, the comparison of actual performance against an integrated baseline plan consisting of integrated cost, schedule, and technical goals. Earned Value Management (EVM) often anchors such a performance measurement system in DoD programs.

Technical Review 44

Technical Review Performance Measurement Engineering Estimate 44

Herding Cats

JUNE 19, 2017

The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure. Of late, Cone of Uncertainty has become the mantra of No Estimates advocates claiming that data is needed BEFORE the Cone is of any use. The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure. Measure of Effectiveness. Measure of Performance.

Technical Review 35

Technical Review Performance Measurement Underperforming Technical Team Estimate 35

International Institute for Learning

OCTOBER 4, 2022

Gap can also exist for performance improvement expectations such as: Reduction in risk by a certain percentage, cost, or time. Improvement in estimating accuracy by a certain percentage or dollar value. Identification of governance and leadership effectiveness. Cost savings of a certain percentage or dollar value.

Aerospace 59

Aerospace Underperforming Technical Team Government Governance 59

Herding Cats

NOVEMBER 29, 2017

Supporting artifacts such as the WBS, WBS Dictionary, Basis of Estimates (BOE), and the Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) are available to help define the scope of the work to be performed and especially the entrance and exit criteria for key program Events. Validating Information with Cross References.

Planning 42

Planning Software Review Government Governance 42

Herding Cats

OCTOBER 12, 2018

In Earned Value Management paradigm, progress is always measured as physical percent complete. This physical percent complete is measured as compliance with the Technical Performance Measures of the outcomes of the work efforts, that consume the budget for that work. The Measures of Performance are.

Engineering 32

Engineering Performance Measurement Underperforming Technical Team Risk Management 32

Project Pulse Journal

MARCH 7, 2024

Discover the importance of organizational governance systems, delve into essential project-associated functions, learn how to navigate the project environment, and ensure you are communicating and building relationships with internal and external stakeholders.

Government 52

Government Governance Technical Review Sustainability 52

Herding Cats

JANUARY 5, 2017

These charts are an extract from the book Performance-Based Project Management: Increasing the Probability of Project Success and the abstracted training materials Handbook. How to Avoid the "Yesterday's Weather" Estimating Problem. Related articles. Doing the Math. Hope is not a Strategy. Complex, Complexity, Complicated.

Estimate 81

Estimate Closing Controlling Defining 81

Workamajig

JANUARY 11, 2021

Actual dates are different from planned or estimated dates. Actual Effort: The actual effort spent to complete the activity, as opposed to the planned or estimated effort. Actual Expenditure: The actual expenditure spent to complete the activity, as opposed to the planned or estimated expenditure.

Underperforming Technical Team 60

Underperforming Technical Team Project Life Cycle Estimate Software Review 60

Herding Cats

MARCH 11, 2018

When we hear about software development disasters and then hear that estimates are to blame, and NOT Estimating will somehow reduce or prevent these disasters, think again. Each of the categories operates in the presence of uncertainty and requires that estimates be made about the probability, conseqeunce of the resutling risk.

Software Developers 34

Software Developers Software Development Risk Management Risk 34

Herding Cats

JUNE 4, 2016

It is wrong to suppose that if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it – a costly myth. This is used in support of the fallacy that estimates aren't needed to make decisions in the presence of uncertanty. Technical Performance Measures. Why Guessing is not Estimating and Estimating is not Guessing.

Software Engineering 28

Software Engineering Finance Performance Measurement Manufacturing 28

Herding Cats

AUGUST 5, 2017

What are the “units of measure” for this increasing maturity? The answers to each of these questions require making estimates in the presence of uncertainty. No Point Estimate of Cost or Duration can be Correct. A common distribution of probabilistic estimates for cost and schedule random variables is the Triangle Distribution.

Risk Management 42

Risk Management Risk Estimate Underperforming Technical Team 42

Herding Cats

NOVEMBER 5, 2018

In a previous post, Why Johnny Can't Estimate , mentioned some resources for estimating, the principles of business and technical management that demand estimates be made to make decisions, and background on the sources of uncertainty, that create risk, that require estimating to increase the probability of project success.

Software Review 34

Software Review Estimate Technical Review Software Developers 34

Herding Cats

JULY 9, 2018

Measures of Effectiveness, Measures of Performance, Technical Performance Measures, and Key Performance Parameters are the units of measure meaningful to the decision makers. Cost, Schedule, and these measures are tightly interconnected. No not to exceed budgets. Sage and Christopher D.

2001 31

2001 Software Estimate Performance Measurement 31

Herding Cats

JUNE 4, 2017

The test of the hypothesis for projects are the Measures of Effectiveness, Measures of Performance, Key Performance Parameters, and techTechnicalformance Measures used to assess progress to plan for the project. Estimating how much is the starting point. Estimating is part of risk management.

Estimate 39

Estimate Risk Management Risk Engineering 39

Wrike

JUNE 11, 2023

These frameworks involve the use of statistical techniques, probability theory, and mathematical formulas to estimate the likelihood and impact of risks, calculate expected values, and determine risk exposure. It provides a set of control objectives, best practices, and management guidelines for effective risk management and IT governance.

Risk Management 36

Risk Management Risk Underperforming Technical Team Technical Review 36

Herding Cats

JANUARY 22, 2017

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). This is a closed loop control system for managing the program with a T echnical Performance Measure (TPM).

Technical Review 28

Technical Review 2005 Estimate Software Review 28

Herding Cats

FEBRUARY 4, 2017

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates are needed but are subject to large level of uncertainty. There can be cost and schedule performance measures as well.

Technical Review 28

Technical Review Estimate 2005 Software Review 28

Herding Cats

MAY 12, 2018

So before listening to any conjecture about how agile should be done or not done - establish a context, a domain, a business and technical process, the external and internal business, technical, and financial governance process.

Agile 44

Agile Finance Software Developers Software Development 44

Herding Cats

JANUARY 17, 2017

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). This is a closed loop control system for managing the program with a T echnical Performance Measure (TPM).

Technical Review 28

Technical Review 2005 Estimate Software Review 28

Epicflow Blog

APRIL 25, 2024

” Eli Schragenheim The lesson is: when you ask for a clear one-number estimation, without defining the level of common and expected uncertainty, then you either might face big surprises or face frequent occurrences, where the project/mission finished exactly on time.

2016 52

2016 Monitoring Risk Management Healthcare 52

Herding Cats

JANUARY 14, 2017

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates or any other project attribute (in this post, cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). This is a closed loop control system for managing the program with a T echnical Performance Measure (TPM). Related articles.

Technical Review 28

Technical Review Software Review Underperforming Technical Team Estimate 28

Herding Cats

AUGUST 12, 2016

Unrealistic performance expectations missing Measures of Effectiveness and Measures of Performance. Unrealistic Cost and Schedule estimates based on inadequate risk adjusted growth models. Before diving into the details of these, let me address another issue that has come up around project success and estimates.

Estimate 28

Estimate 2003 Technical Review Aerospace 28

Herding Cats

JANUARY 29, 2018

The principles of microeconomics of decision making in the presence of uncertainty mandates you make estimates of how to achieve that Value in terms of cost and schedule, those three (and all) variables are random variables, usually driven by a stochastic process. There's a popular notion in Agile that says Focus on Value.

Manufacturing 40

Manufacturing Estimate Risk Management Budget 40

Herding Cats

JULY 9, 2018

Measures of Effectiveness, Measures of Performance, Technical Performance Measures, and Key Performance Parameters are the units of measure meaningful to the decision makers. Cost, Schedule, and these measures are tightly interconnected. No not to exceed budgets. Sage and Christopher D.

2001 28

2001 Software Estimate Performance Measurement 28

Epicflow Blog

OCTOBER 16, 2023

” Eli Schragenheim The lesson is: when you ask for a clear one-number estimation, without defining the level of common and expected uncertainty, then you either might face big surprises or face frequent occurrences, where the project/mission finished exactly on time.

2016 52

2016 Monitoring Risk Management Healthcare 52