Herding Cats

MARCH 23, 2017

In the estimating business, like many things in project management, there is confusion about principles, practices, and processes. A good estimation approach should provide estimates that are within 25% of the actual results, 75% of the time. The book this statement comes from is Conte, S. Dunsmore and V.Y.

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Herding Cats

OCTOBER 4, 2016

In the same book Burn Math Class and Reinvent Mathematics for Yourself , there is a joke that is applicable to the topic of this blog. When we hear, we can't estimate this because we've never done this before. Or estimating is hard - meaning it's hard for me , and I can't possibly estimate when I don't know how.

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Herding Cats

NOVEMBER 3, 2016

Since all risk comes from uncertainty - reducible (Epistemic) and irreducible (Aleatory), estimating is a foundation of all we do. There is no discussion of the conjecture that estimates are a waste, estimates can't be done, estimates are evil, estimates must be stopped immediately. illities are a waste.

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MPUG

MARCH 9, 2020

As a software engineer; however, I was able to easily understand MSP, and it did not take me long to create a schedule for my project. Try not to think about the dates, duration estimates, or any other task attributes in the beginning. Do NOT Assign Task Dates or Duration at First. Create WBS using Indent and Outdent.

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Defining Software Engineering Engineering Estimate 128

Herding Cats

MAY 8, 2016

ways to make decisions with No Estimates. can we make a decision in the presence of Uncertainty without making an estimate of the impact or outcome of that decision? What would be the evidence that we could make decisions in the presence of uncertanty without estimating the impacts and outcomes of those decisions? . Start here.

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Herding Cats

SEPTEMBER 22, 2017

The #NoEstimates Manifesto - Actually restates Best Practice for estimating and making decisions with those estimates. . Deterministic estimates are point estimates and Point estimates without a Variance are of little value in the presence of uncertainty. Estimates make use of a broad range of models and data .

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Herding Cats

MARCH 11, 2017

What happens if you shift focus from "accurate estimation" to "reliably shipping by a date"? . If your project has no uncertainty, there is no need to estimate. All estimates have precision and accuracy. Deciding how much precision and accuracy is needed for a credible estimate is critical to the success of that decision.

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Herding Cats

JUNE 12, 2018

Then conjecture that NOT estimating will fix that symptom. Then conjecturing (here) that Not Estimating will somehow fix the problem of when you are DSTOP. The supposed evidence in the presentation, that estimating "does not work" starts with the Chaos Report. Principle #3 - Believe the Data, Not The Estimates .

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Herding Cats

MAY 11, 2017

I started my career as a Software Engineer , writing Fortran 77 signal processing algorithms to find and track missile launchers in the middle eastern desert. It was mathematically based, converting equations in books to Fortran using pre-written parts from the IBM Scientific Subroutine Package. Related articles.

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Herding Cats

DECEMBER 8, 2017

This can be the confidence in the estimate for any variable. But is can be ANY variance for the program, including confidence in the estimates of future performance - cost, schedule, or technical performance. This usually results in a project's actual costs far outrunning the optimistic estimates and creating a large overrun.

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Epicflow Blog

MAY 14, 2019

Victorine Ghobeira , a Senior Business Analyst and Project Manager at Dataquest, says that “preventing a lack of resource starts when defining and estimating activities and leads to creating a realistic schedule. Facts and Fallacies of Software Engineering by Robert L.

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Herding Cats

JULY 28, 2017

This was my starting point for becoming a software engineer rather than a physicist, by the way. . You're bad at estimating - WHY? What book did you not read? Estimating Processes in Support of Economic Analysis. Estimating and Making Decisions in Presence of Uncertainty. Stop talking and go find out why.

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Herding Cats

AUGUST 1, 2018

We're writing two chapters in an upcoming Project Management Book, with a working title, The Gower Handbook of Project Performance for Agile, Waterfall and Everything in Between , edited by Mark Phillips. In the book is the mention of the Cone of Uncertainty as it applies to managing in the presence of uncertanty. 37–48, 2007.

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Herding Cats

FEBRUARY 23, 2016

The conjecture that we can make decisions in the presence of uncertainty without estimating the impacts of those decisions is without any principles that can be tested beyond personal anecdotes of I know people who spend other peoples money without providing estimates. We need to learn how to predict with credible methods.

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Herding Cats

MARCH 9, 2017

DeMacro made this post, which has been picked up by the agile community to mean estimating is a waste. . Implying there is no need to measure the project performance and by implication no need to estimate. For example in "Software Engineering: An Idea Whose Time Has Come and Gone?" All estimates are evil.

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Herding Cats

FEBRUARY 9, 2019

40 - Estimation is a Problematic Practice of Companies Doing Dangerous Things. A #Noestimates advocate makes the claim that having a ±10% accuracy for estimates of cost and duration is a dangerous thing. Define the probabilistic ranges of the work in a single point estimate manner. There are databases for Function Points .

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Herding Cats

JANUARY 23, 2019

In all engineering worlds, from software engineering to bending metal for money, there is really nothing new under the sun. Rarely are software engineers working on science experiments. maybe a read of the resources of Estimating Agile Software Development may help. Almost impossible?

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Herding Cats

JUNE 12, 2018

Then conjecture that NOT estimating will fix that symptom. Then conjecturing (here) that Not Estimating will somehow, through some unstated process of correction or prevention, fix the problem of when you are DSTOP. TO DO in Rally, Remaining Estimate in Jira, and other fields in Team Foundation Server and VersionOne. Not likely.

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Underperforming Technical Team Software Engineering Estimate Development Team Review 28

Herding Cats

JUNE 19, 2017

Of late, Cone of Uncertainty has become the mantra of No Estimates advocates claiming that data is needed BEFORE the Cone is of any use. This fallacy comes from a collection of data that did not follow the needed and planned reduction of uncertainty for the cost estimates of a set of software development projects. .

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MPUG

OCTOBER 15, 2020

Satya is a management professional, speaker, coach and author of six books, including the book I Want To Be An ACP. For example, last year, they audited a number of books into the ACP certification reference and they removed also a number of books. Now you’re thinking, how about mechanical engineer I just said.

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PMI Certification Software Review Technical Review 52

Wrike

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

Gartner estimates that a third of organizations are currently applying AI across several business units, a figure that is only set to grow. customers is because it delivers the best artificial intelligence tools for project and task management, for a fraction of the cost of bespoke software engineering solutions.

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Teamweek

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

Project tracking software helps you: Understand if you’re on track to meet task, milestone, and project deadlines Time tracking Compare estimated vs. actual efforts and costs Adjust plans quickly if you’re not on schedule or within the budget. And almost all such tools are built for software project teams.

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MPUG

MAY 6, 2021

I actually got my degree in software engineering and moved up into project management like a lot of us did back in the day. Individual contributor team, lead section, lead project manager, program manager, director of engineering. Half of the books that we are going to deliver have been created. So, we can measure those.

Performance Measurement 52

Performance Measurement Underperforming Technical Team Government Governance 52

Teamweek

OCTOBER 20, 2022

When you’re leading an agency providing marketing, web development, branding, or software engineering—your success is defined by creativity. They also assign estimates to each task. Depending on the estimates and the time available some of the outcomes may go back to the project backlog. Enhances creativity.

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Herding Cats

MAY 10, 2019

requires making estimates) ? This blog page is dedicated to the resources used to assess risks, their impacts, and handling strategies for software-intensive systems using traditional and agile development methods. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering , Vol. Software Engineering Institute, January 1996.

Risk Management 38

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Herding Cats

MAY 11, 2019

requires making estimates) ? Taxonomy-Based Risk Identification,” Marvin Carr, Suresh Konda, Ira Monarch, Carlo Ulrich, and Clay Walker, Technical Report, CMU/SEI-93-TR-6, Software Engineering Institute, June 1993. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering , Vol. Software Engineering Institute, January 1996.

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Herding Cats

APRIL 4, 2019

So here are some books, handbooks, and guides that sit on my shelf that are used pretty much all the time on the Software Intensive System of Systems we work on. I'm not expecting anyone to read all these books. But when some statement is made about risk, estimating, performance modeling, or the like - always ask for references.

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Teamweek

FEBRUARY 27, 2025

This trend continued into 2024, with an estimated 95,000 tech layoffs. But entry-level software engineer jobs easily replaceable by AI, and roles in other areas, remain at risk of lay-offs. Hire better tech talent faster with Toggl Hire The tech job market in 2025 is set to be less turbulent than in previous years.

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