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Basis of Estimating Software Development

Herding Cats

The estimating of software development is both straightforward and complex. When it is suggested that estimating is hard, of no value, and unnecessary, always ask what principle is used to support that claim? Software Sizing and Estimating: Mk II FPA , Charles Symons, John Wiley & Sons, 1991.

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Thinking By Sprinting: What Cognitive Science Tells Us About Why Scrum Works

Scrum.org

A while ago, I received an interesting scientific article from Gunther Verheyen titled “Getting Things Done: The Science Behind Stress-Free Productivity” (Heylighen & Vidal, 2007). Software development is (generally speaking) very complex. This will affect all estimates and predictions. Limitations of attention.

2002 208
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Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

Making changes late in the development cycle has significant impacts on the verification and validation of the system no matter the software development method. . A recent survey of 600 firms indicated that 35% of them had at least one "runaway' software project. Dissertation, University of Maryland, 2007.

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Reading List for the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The primary purpose of software estimation is not to predict a project’s outcome; it is to determine whether a project’s targets are realistic enough to allow the project to be controlled to meet them ? As more details get developed, the Cone converges to the actual value. Steve McConnell.

2012 48
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Resources for Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

Seems there is still some confusion (intentional or accidental) about the Cone of Uncertainty and its purpose and its use in software development. Some feel that the cone does not provide any value for the work they do and does not match the reducing uncertainty in their estimates. This letter states.

2007 34
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In-Depth: How Easily Biases Distort What We Believe (In The Workplace)

Scrum.org

People often fail to understand this fallacy because they underestimate how much of their behavior and their outcomes are influenced by randomness (Taleb, 2007). When teams estimate work, hearing an initial estimate is likely to “anchor” further estimates. How to reduce this bias. Examples in the workplace.

2015 225
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Deconstructing The Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The paper on the Cone of Uncertainty is used by many in the No Estimates community as an example of why estimates are of little use. In this paper, there is data that does not follow the Cone of Uncertainty, in that the uncertainty of the estimates does not reduce as the project proceeds. Then there is some analysis.

2007 42