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The paper on the Cone of Uncertainty is used by many in the No Estimates community as an example of why estimates are of little use. In this paper, there is data that does not follow the Cone of Uncertainty, in that the uncertainty of the estimates does not reduce as the project proceeds. Then there is some analysis.
When we hear about software development disasters and then hear that estimates are to blame, and NOT Estimating will somehow reduce or prevent these disasters, think again. Each of the categories operates in the presence of uncertainty and requires that estimates be made about the probability, conseqeunce of the resutling risk.
Project Performance Management (#PPM). Technical PerformanceMeasures (#TPM). Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance Management (#CSTPM). Project Performance Management. Building a Credible PerformanceMeasurement Baseline - without a good foundation, nothing can be built. Risk Management (#RM).
All making things smaller dos is show that you're late, over budget, and what you're building (Technical PerformanceMeasures) doesn't work faster. But when some statement is made about risk, estimating, performance modeling, or the like - always ask for references. Ravindranath Pandian, Auerbach Publications, 2007.
Measures of Performance - are performancemeasures that characterize physical or functional attributes relating to the system operation, measured or estimated under specific conditions. Measures of Performance. The Technical PerformanceMeasures. Let's look at the differences.
The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical PerformanceMeasure. Of late, Cone of Uncertainty has become the mantra of No Estimates advocates claiming that data is needed BEFORE the Cone is of any use. The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical PerformanceMeasure. Measure of Effectiveness. Measure of Performance.
“Coping with the Cone of Uncertainty: An Empirical Study of the SAIV Process Model,” Da Yang, Barry Boehm, Ye Yang, Qing Wang, and Mingshu Li, ICSP 2007 , LNCS 4470, pp. 37–48, 2007. Shrinking the Cone of Uncertainty with Continuous Assessment for Software Team Dynamics in Design and Development,” Pongtip Aroonvatanaporn,”Ph.D.
The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). This is a closed loop control system for managing the program with a T echnical PerformanceMeasure (TPM).
The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). Estimates are needed but are subject to large level of uncertainty. There can be cost and schedule performancemeasures as well.
This is an immutable principle that impacts planning, execution, performancemeasures, decision making, risk, budgeting, and overall business and technical management of the project and the business funding the project no matter the domain, context, technology or any methods. All project work operates in the presence of uncertainty.
The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). This is a closed loop control system for managing the program with a T echnical PerformanceMeasure (TPM).
In a previous post, Why Johnny Can't Estimate , mentioned some resources for estimating, the principles of business and technical management that demand estimates be made to make decisions, and background on the sources of uncertainty, that create risk, that require estimating to increase the probability of project success.
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