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Deconstructing The Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The paper on the Cone of Uncertainty is used by many in the No Estimates community as an example of why estimates are of little use. In this paper, there is data that does not follow the Cone of Uncertainty, in that the uncertainty of the estimates does not reduce as the project proceeds. Then there is some analysis.

2007 42
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Microeconomics and Risk Management in Decision Making for Software Development

Herding Cats

When we hear about software development disasters and then hear that estimates are to blame, and NOT Estimating will somehow reduce or prevent these disasters, think again. Each of the categories operates in the presence of uncertainty and requires that estimates be made about the probability, conseqeunce of the resutling risk.

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Compendium of Works to Increase Probability of Project Success

Herding Cats

Project Performance Management (#PPM). Technical Performance Measures (#TPM). Cost, Schedule, and Technical Performance Management (#CSTPM). Project Performance Management. Building a Credible Performance Measurement Baseline - without a good foundation, nothing can be built. Risk Management (#RM).

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Fallacy of the Day

Herding Cats

Measures of Performance - are performance measures that characterize physical or functional attributes relating to the system operation, measured or estimated under specific conditions. Measures of Performance. The Technical Performance Measures. Let's look at the differences.

2005 37
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Misinterpretations of the Cone of Uncertainty

Herding Cats

The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure. Of late, Cone of Uncertainty has become the mantra of No Estimates advocates claiming that data is needed BEFORE the Cone is of any use. The Cone of Uncertainty as a Technical Performance Measure. Measure of Effectiveness. Measure of Performance.

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Cone of Uncertainty - Revisited

Herding Cats

“Coping with the Cone of Uncertainty: An Empirical Study of the SAIV Process Model,” Da Yang, Barry Boehm, Ye Yang, Qing Wang, and Mingshu Li, ICSP 2007 , LNCS 4470, pp. 37–48, 2007. Shrinking the Cone of Uncertainty with Continuous Assessment for Software Team Dynamics in Design and Development,” Pongtip Aroonvatanaporn,”Ph.D.

2012 29
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Cone of Uncertainty - Part Cinq

Herding Cats

The Cone is a project management framework describing the uncertainty aspects of estimates (cost and schedule) and other project attributes (cost, schedule, and technical performance parameters). This is a closed loop control system for managing the program with a T echnical Performance Measure (TPM).